Carlos Alcaraz hits a tough spot on his way to world No. 1, even after winning the Japan Open.
Carlos Alcaraz’s chance to get back to world number one is on pause for now, as the top spot for the rest of the year is already taken.
On Tuesday, Alcaraz got back on track by winning his first trophy since coming back from a four-month injury. He defended his Japan Open title by beating world No. 19 Jiri Lehecka in the final. This win helps him move closer to being world number one again, a spot he lost in April, but he’s not going to reclaim it anytime soon.
Right now, Jannik Sinner is still number one on the ATP Tour, but he plans to end his season early. Since defending his Wimbledon title in July, Sinner hasn’t played and says he needs to focus on his long-term career and treat a knee injury.
Because of this, Sinner will lose his top spot, and Alexander Zverev is set to become the 30th ATP world number one. Sinner will lose over 3,000 ranking points by skipping several tournaments like the Shanghai Masters and ATP Finals, freezing his points at 7,950.
Zverev, meanwhile, has 8,760 points thanks to his big wins at Roland Garros and the US Open, putting him just behind Sinner in the rankings. When the remaining points drop off, Zverev will definitely move ahead of Sinner next year—it’s only a matter of when.
This also means Zverev has secured the world number one spot since his closest competitors, Ben Shelton and Alcaraz, can’t catch up.
Shelton has 4,440 points this year. Even if he won all the remaining big tournaments, he’d max out at 8,440 points—still behind Zverev. Alcaraz would also fall short with 8,050 points if he won the rest of his planned events without entering any extra ones.
However, if Alcaraz decides to join and win additional tournaments like Vienna and an ATP 250 event plus his current schedule, he could pass Zverev with 8,810 points. But so far, he hasn’t said he’ll enter more events, and Zverev’s points will likely keep rising.
Zverev, who’s about to reach a career-high ranking, shared his thoughts at the Shanghai Masters about possibly becoming world number one. “It’s definitely a talking point right now,” he said. “For me, I’m motivated to keep playing and fighting for good results. I can only control what I do on the court and focus on my next match.”
He’s currently world number two and will play the winner of Wu Yibing and Michael Zheng in the second round of the Shanghai Masters.