2026 Mexico City GP Predictions: Lewis Hamilton to Win, Make History, and George Russell Faces Pressure
The Formula 1 circus is heading to Mexico this weekend for an exciting race that promises plenty of action. The long run to the first corner usually causes drama, with some close battles and history in the making throughout the field. Mexico’s unique track features might lead to a busy weekend packed with incidents—here’s what you should keep an eye on.
Mercedes’ young star, Kimi Antonelli, has been amazing this year, proving it’s not just about having the best car. While Antonelli seems perfectly in sync with his W17, his teammate George Russell has had a tougher time, sometimes falling far behind. Last week at the United States GP was a great example—Antonelli dominated and won, while Russell had a rough race and finished eighth.
Antonelli really loves this new generation of cars, and it’s pushing him close to a stunning F1 record. If he finishes ninth or better this weekend, he’ll become the youngest F1 world champion ever at just 20 years and 68 days old—beating Sebastian Vettel’s record by over three years. Vettel set his record in 2010 at 23 years and 134 days.
The Mexico City GP is unique because it sits 1.3 miles above sea level—about three times higher than the next highest track in Brazil. This thin air reduces downforce by about 20%, which means teams with strong aerodynamics have less advantage. It also makes it harder for turbo engines to work properly, often causing mechanical problems.
This might be good news for Lewis Hamilton and Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc, who have one of the best cars but a smaller turbo that sometimes struggles. For example, on the long straights in Austin last week, Ferrari was almost 7.5 mph slower than the fastest cars. Teams will use big wings again like in Monaco, but the downforce in Mexico will be the lowest of the year.
Cars will run with looser bodywork and bigger cooling inlets to keep parts cool, but they need to balance this so they don’t slow down too much with extra drag. With so many tricky choices, we could see a very mixed-up starting grid on Sunday—making the race even more exciting.
Mexico is also known for giving young drivers a chance during Free Practice 1 sessions. Since the track is usually dusty, teams often use these sessions to let up-and-coming drivers get some track time, which doesn’t spoil their race data too much. This year, ten young drivers will be filling in, acting like the fastest road sweepers in the world.
Here’s who’s replacing the regular drivers:
– Mercedes: Frederik Vesti steps in for George Russell
– Red Bull Racing: Ayumu Iwasa replaces Max Verstappen
– McLaren: Leonardo Fornaroli takes over from Lando Norris
– Racing Bulls: Nikola Tsolov replaces Liam Lawson
– Alpine: Gabriele Minì fills in for Franco Colapinto
– Haas: Ryo Hirakawa replaces Esteban Ocon
– Audi: Freddie Slater steps in for Gabriel Bortoleto
– Williams: Luke Browning replaces Alex Albon
– Aston Martin: Jak Crawford replaces Lance Stroll
– Cadillac: Colton Herta fills in for Valtteri Bottas
– Ferrari: No young driver this time—Leclerc and Hamilton will race as usual
Pirelli is bringing softer tyres this year: the C3 (hard), C4 (medium), and C5 (soft). These tyres wear out faster than before, which could shake up strategies. Since 2015, every Mexico City GP has seen a Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car, so some teams might take bold risks as the season nears its end.
While Antonelli continues to shine, Russell’s struggles have been tough to watch. Last weekend in Austin was especially rough for Russell, who called his pace “rubbish” and is trying to figure out why he’s so far off. Currently, he’s second in the championship but just one point ahead of Lewis Hamilton, with Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc close behind. Any big crashes or race surprises could shake up the title fight significantly.
Get ready for an action-packed race—Mexico never disappoints!