Ballon d’Or chances shift a lot just two days before the winner is revealed
Lamine Yamal’s chances of winning the Ballon d’Or have changed a lot recently. The Barcelona forward’s odds went from 9/4 to 5/1 just before Monday’s awards show. It’s starting to look like one of three players will take the prize this year: Yamal, Harry Kane, or Kylian Mbappe.
Yamal has definitely made a strong case. Last season, he scored 16 goals and made 11 assists in La Liga, helping Barcelona win the title again. He also won the Spanish Super Cup and played a key part in Spain’s 2026 World Cup win, which often influences the Ballon d’Or results.
Still, Bayern Munich’s striker Harry Kane is the clear favorite for many bookies after an incredible season, scoring 73 goals in 65 games. On Saturday morning, Kane was leading the bets at 1/3 with Sky Bet, according to Oddschecker. Meanwhile, Yamal’s odds have gotten longer; three out of 15 bookmakers raised their prices, including Paddy Power, whose odds moved from 9/4 to 5/1. This means some think the young player is less likely to win now.
Why have Yamal’s odds changed so much? One reason could be Kane winning the ‘100 MARCA’ award just days before the Ballon d’Or. This prize is voted on by international journalists, former players, and coaches. Voters pick their top 15 out of 100 nominees, and Kane came out on top with 3,962 points—just 25 more than Yamal’s 3,937. This might hint at how the Ballon d’Or voting will go.
Mbappe finished third in the MARCA award with 3,440 points, ahead of players like Rodri, Kvaratskhelia, Messi, and others. If Yamal wins the Ballon d’Or, he’ll become the youngest-ever winner, beating former Barcelona star Ronaldo Nazario, who was 21 when he won in 1997.
Last month, Yamal said he believes he’s good enough to win the award but thinks his age makes it harder. “Honestly, it’s not just this year that I’ve been at a Ballon d’Or level—it’s been longer,” he told The Guardian. “People know I’m different. Maybe they think, ‘Lamine is 19, he’ll win it someday, so let’s pick someone else now.’ I just have to keep winning, and one day there’ll be no question about it. Some people will love me; some will say, ‘What a pain!’ and that’s okay.”