The last Champions League spot might be decided by a play-off in an unexpected turn of events.
Bournemouth’s draw with Manchester City on Tuesday night means there’s now a real chance that fifth place in the Premier League could be decided by a play-off game.
The Cherries held City to a 1-1 draw at the Vitality Stadium, confirming Arsenal as champions for the first time since 2004. This left City four points behind with just one game left to play.
While everyone at Arsenal was celebrating and City fans were sad about losing the title and possibly Pep Guardiola, another big consequence of the result quickly became clear.
Bournemouth’s point means they are three points behind Liverpool in the race for the final Champions League spot. They need to beat Nottingham Forest on Sunday and hope Liverpool lose to Brentford at home.
It’s not impossible given their recent form — Liverpool have only managed one point from their last three games, while Bournemouth has won three and drawn two of their last five. They were even denied a win against City by a late goal from Erling Haaland.
However, Liverpool have a strong advantage in goal difference (+10 vs. +4) and have scored five more goals than Bournemouth. This means they are still in the lead, needing about a seven-goal swing to lose fifth place. For example, if Bournemouth wins 4-0 and Liverpool loses 2-0, Liverpool would still keep fifth place.
But, as Michael Reid, Opta’s Football Editor, pointed out on X, if Bournemouth wins 5-0 and Liverpool loses 1-0, the teams would be tied on points, goal difference, and goals scored.
Then the tie-break would look at their head-to-head results — and those are also level since each team won their home game. Amazingly, even the away goals are tied, with Liverpool winning 4-2 at home and Bournemouth winning 3-2 in their game.
This means a play-off could happen — it’s rare, but still possible on the final day of the Premier League. Reid also mentioned that Bournemouth beat Forest 5-0 last season, the exact score they’d need!
Although this is a long shot, the fact we’re even talking about it shows how much Liverpool have struggled this season.
The Reds have only won 17 of their 37 league games, lost 12, and haven’t gone beyond the quarter-finals in any cup competitions or the Champions League.
Even so, reports say FSG aren’t planning to replace manager Arne Slot, despite Xabi Alonso leaving for Chelsea. Still, a 4-2 loss to Aston Villa and some quiet criticism from Mohamed Salah on social media have sparked talk that Liverpool might change managers this summer, with four options reportedly being considered.
If Bournemouth manage a shock finish and take fifth place, the pressure on Slot will only grow.