The Opta supercomputer ran 10,000 World Cup simulations, and the results are really fascinating to see!
Opta’s supercomputer has run 10,000 simulations of the 2026 World Cup to figure out which country is most likely to win this summer’s tournament in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
We’re just 10 days away from the first game, where Mexico will face South Africa at Estadio Azteca, and everyone’s really excited!
This World Cup is special because 48 teams will play instead of the usual 32, with a total of 104 matches happening from June 11 to July 19. The final will be at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
Argentina, the current champions, are one of six teams that have a good chance of winning again, according to Opta’s supercomputer.
If you don’t know, the Opta supercomputer uses stats from betting odds and team rankings to predict the chance of a team winning, drawing, or losing. These rankings look at how teams have played in the past and recently.
So, who’s the favorite? Spain tops the list, winning in 16.1% of the simulations. They’re followed by France (13.0%), England (11.2%), Argentina (10.4%), Portugal (7%), and Brazil (6.6%). Spain even made it to the final in 25.6% of the runs, while England did so 19% of the time.
Interestingly, Curacao was the only team that never won in any simulation, but Haiti, Cape Verde, Qatar, and Congo DR actually won at least once.
As for the host countries, Mexico has almost a 48% chance to win their group but less than 1% chance to win the whole tournament. The U.S. has a slightly better shot at 1.21%, and Canada’s chance is smaller at 0.52%.
Michael Bruno from Brazil has a good knack for predicting World Cup winners. He called Spain to win in 2010, Germany in 2014, and France in 2018. In 2022, he expected France to win again, but Argentina beat them in a shootout.
Bruno is confident this year, telling Globo Esporte that he believes Portugal will be the 2026 champions. He picked France, Spain, England, Argentina, Portugal, and Brazil as top contenders and thinks Cristiano Ronaldo will help Portugal finally win their first World Cup on July 19.
Opta’s supercomputer gives Portugal a 7% chance. You can check out the full table HERE.