World Cup drama as both Algeria and Austria could gain by losing their match
Algeria and Austria are set to face each other in the last World Cup group game this weekend, and it might turn out to be one of the most unusual matches in football history. That’s because, oddly enough, both teams could actually benefit more from losing than from winning this Group J game.
Argentina, the current world champions, are expected to top the group after beating both teams already. Their star player, Lionel Messi, has been amazing, scoring five goals in the first two games. With their place in the round of 32 secure, Lionel Scaloni’s team will play Jordan, who are already out of the tournament, in their final group match in Arlington, Texas.
At the same time, Algeria and Austria will play in a key match in Kansas City to decide who finishes second in the group. Both have three points after beating Jordan, and thanks to the importance of head-to-head records, neither can finish last in the group. But, interestingly, the team that loses this game is likely to get a better and easier matchup in the next round.
Right now, Austria is just ahead in second place but is on track to face Spain, the European champions, in the round of 32. Since this World Cup has 48 teams and 12 groups—a record number—eight of the best third-place teams will also make it to the next round. Finishing third in Group J might mean facing a weaker group winner with a lower FIFA ranking, possibly Belgium or Egypt, depending on how other results go.
Florian Ederer, an economics professor at Boston University, explained to The Times, “There could be a situation where both teams actually want to lose that final match.” The twist is that Algeria and Austria will play after all the other group games finish, so they’ll know exactly which team they could be up against in the next round.
If Algeria draws, they would finish third because Austria has a better goal difference, giving Austria a tougher opponent in the knockout stage. A similar thing happened in 2018 when England lost their final group match to Belgium, finished second, but ended up with a better path in the tournament.
This kind of situation isn’t new for Algeria and Austria. Back in the 1982 World Cup, when wins were worth two points, Algeria had already beaten West Germany and Chile. Then, in the last group match, West Germany and Austria played knowing exactly what result they needed. West Germany won 1-0, helping both teams move on while knocking out Algeria due to goal difference.
That match was called the “Disgrace of Gijon” because after the early goal, both teams just passed the ball around without trying to score, knowing they would both qualify. This led FIFA to change the rule so that final group games would start at the same time, making things fairer for everyone.