The World Cup standings you didn’t know about that will decide England’s next knockout matches
England already have a good idea of who they might play in the World Cup round of 32 after officially qualifying – but FIFA is using a totally new way to figure it out, different from anything we’ve seen before.
The Three Lions secured their spot in the knockout stage with a 0-0 draw against Ghana in Boston on Tuesday. That tie means they might still need to beat Panama in their last group match – unless Ghana and Croatia end in a draw – in order to finish top of their group.
If England do top the group, which most expect, they’ll go up against one of five third-placed teams in the round of 32. The easier part is knowing they’ll face a team from Group E, H, I, J, or K. Right now, that means they could play Ecuador, Cape Verde, Senegal, Algeria, or DR Congo.
However, depending on how the last group games go, England might end up facing teams like Ivory Coast or Portugal—or even Spain in a worst-case scenario.
To figure out exactly who England will play, FIFA uses their new calculation system. At the start of the tournament, there were 495 possible match-ups involving third-placed teams, but that number has gone down as teams either secured top-two spots or got knocked out.
The main way to rank third-placed teams is by points. Teams with four points finishing third are almost certain to qualify—there’s a 99.81% chance, according to Opta stats.
If points aren’t enough to break ties, FIFA looks at goal difference, goals scored, fair play records, and FIFA rankings. The fair-play system means teams lose points for yellow and red cards: one point for a yellow, three for a red from two yellows, and four for a direct red. For example, South Africa would be at a disadvantage if they rely on fair play since they had two players sent off in their opening match against Mexico.
The eight third-placed teams that make it to the round of 32 each get a spot in the knockout bracket, based on FIFA’s calculations. These depend on which groups those third-placed teams come from.
FIFA shared a list of all possible 495 combinations at the start, showing all the match-ups that could happen based on the final group standings.
Right now, according to BBC Sport’s prediction before the last round of games, England would face Cape Verde for the first competitive time ever in the round of 32—but that could still change.