A supercomputer ran the Champions League 1,000 times, and the results are pretty fascinating!
A supercomputer has run 10,000 simulations of this season’s Champions League to predict which team has the best chance of winning Europe’s biggest soccer trophy.
The draw for the 2026-27 Champions League happened on Thursday in Monaco. Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), who won last year by beating Arsenal, are ready to defend their title.
PSG will play Barcelona, Roma, Galatasaray, and Slovan Bratislava at home. They’ll also face tough away matches against Manchester City, Aston Villa, Villarreal, and Como from Italy’s Serie A.
Arsenal, last season’s runners-up, have a tough group too. At home, they will play Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Lille, and Sabah. Their away games include Bayern Munich, Real Betis, Napoli, and Slavia Prague.
So, who is most likely to win? The supercomputer ran 1,000 simulations of the group stage and the rest of the tournament to figure it out. Using team strength, recent form, and betting odds, the model predicts PSG to finish top of the 36-team group stage.
In fact, PSG is forecasted to beat Arsenal again in the final, just like last year. Their path to the final includes tough wins over Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals and Real Madrid in the semi-finals, with the final held at Madrid’s Estadio Metropolitano.
PSG is expected to finish the group stage with 19 points. Arsenal comes second with 18 points. Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Manchester City, Liverpool, and Inter Milan make up the rest of the top eight teams.
Alex Kostin from British Gambler, who created the model, shared the results:
“PSG’s group is tough, but the supercomputer still sees them as the strongest team. They should top the group and then get through a challenging knockout stage, beating Bayern and Real Madrid to reach the final.
“Arsenal is the highest-ranked English team. They face difficult matches like Bayern away and Real Madrid at home, but the model gives them a good chance to finish in the top eight and avoid the February playoffs.
“The most common final predicted is a repeat of last season, with PSG narrowly beating Arsenal, 2-1.”
Manchester United, however, are predicted to have a hard time and may not make it to the last 16. They will host Bayern Munich, AS Roma, RB Leipzig, and Sabah (a team from the Azerbaijan Premier League coached by former quiz star Valdas Dambrauskas).
Their away games include Atletico Madrid, Sporting, Villarreal, and Como, making for a tough group overall.