Here’s what Man City’s drop could look like after losing 100 points, with lots of players leaving and a surprising new boss expected.
Man City has been found guilty of almost all 115 charges related to breaking Premier League financial rules, with some tough punishments possible, including a huge points deduction. But what if they got hit with a 100-point deduction for the 2027/28 season? How would they cope?
On Tuesday, September 29, the Premier League said an independent commission found City guilty of 114 out of 115 charges about financial rule-breaking between 2008/09 and 2017/18 — a time when the club won three Premier League titles. The league said City used “sham contracts” to boost revenue figures and lower costs.
The Premier League also said City arranged secret funding deals worth more than £830 million with commercial partners. City deny any wrongdoing and say they have strong evidence to prove their case.
The commission also found City guilty of mostly not cooperating with the investigation. It said important club witnesses gave false or dishonest evidence. The club has until October 2 to appeal the decision.
Using advanced computer predictions, SPORTbible looked at what might happen if City were docked 100 points in the 2027/28 season. Unsurprisingly, City would be relegated despite earning 78 points on the field, ending with –22 points and in last place (20th).
City are predicted to reach the FA Cup quarter-finals and Carabao Cup semi-finals, but their coach Enzo Maresca would likely leave. The club would lose about £150 million in TV, prize, and commercial money. Their star players like Erling Haaland, Gianluigi Donnarumma, and several others would probably leave before playing in the Championship.
Some young academy players like Phil Foden, Nico O’Reilly, and Rico Lewis are expected to stay loyal, along with a few others. Player sales could bring in between £650 million and £800 million.
Looking ahead to the 2028/29 season in the second division, the supercomputer gives City an 84% chance of earning automatic promotion, with around 101 points. Foden would become captain, and the team would add players with experience in the Championship. City would reach the fifth round of the FA Cup and quarter-finals of the Carabao Cup. Vincent Kompany could return from Bayern as the new manager.
City are predicted to come back up to the Premier League in 2029/30, finishing ninth with 55 points after spending £200 million on young talent, using a smart transfer approach. They might reach the League Cup final but finish runners-up.
In 2030/31, City are expected to finish sixth, qualify for the Europa League, and win the League Cup. They would also reach the FA Cup quarter-finals.
By the 2031/32 season, City could finish third and qualify for the Champions League again, earning Kompany a new contract. They’d reach the semis of the FA Cup and Europa League, plus the fourth round of the League Cup.
The computer also predicts some big signings over the next few years, including rising stars like Hayden Hackney, Jobe Bellingham, and Liam Delap, as well as replacements for key players like Haaland. City’s spending is expected to continue rising, bringing in exciting new talent to keep them competitive.
No matter what happens, City’s story looks set to continue with ups and downs, but with plenty of fight to bounce back stronger.