Why Lamine Yamal has a clear advantage over Harry Kane in Ballon d’Or voting, thanks to impressive stats revealed
When the votes are counted and the Ballon d’Or winner is announced in London on October 26, history shows that Barcelona star Lamine Yamal might have the upper hand over Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane.
Yamal, just 19 years old, could become the youngest player ever to win the award after helping Barcelona win two big trophies and leading Spain to their second World Cup victory. Kane, meanwhile, wants to be the first English player since Michael Owen in 2001 to win, after an incredible run of 73 goals in 65 games from August 2025 to July 2026.
It’s hard to choose between these two amazing players given their incredible seasons for club and country, but history leans slightly toward Yamal. According to Ask Gamblers, since 2000, 64% of Ballon d’Or winners played in La Liga, 76% were forwards, and 80% had won their league, the Champions League, or the World Cup that year.
Out of the 30 players shortlisted this year, only Yamal checks all three boxes, while Kane, as a forward who has won the Bundesliga, fits two of the three criteria. Even though the award is about individual brilliance, winning major trophies often gives players an edge.
For example, Ousmane Dembele won the 2025 Ballon d’Or after leading Paris Saint-Germain to a historic treble and scoring 35 goals with 16 assists in the 2024/25 season. The year before, Rodri’s treble with Manchester City and his key role in Spain’s Euro 2024 win helped him take the prize. And when Lionel Messi finally won the World Cup with Argentina in 2022, it was no surprise he won his eighth Ballon d’Or in 2023.
That’s why it wouldn’t be shocking if Yamal wins this year after helping Spain end their 16-year wait for a World Cup while England fell in the semi-finals to Argentina.
The debate over who should win the Ballon d’Or is close. Both players are neck and neck with the bookmakers, making it tough to predict who will come out on top.
After Arsenal’s 2-2 draw against Bayern Munich in the Champions League—where Kane scored and assisted—teammate Declan Rice had high praise for him. Rice said, “I think it’s his time. He deserves this. His entire career, the consistency, the longevity… He’s getting better as he gets older.”
Rice, who scored the equaliser at the Allianz Arena, hit the nail on the head. Kane turned 33 in July but might be playing the best football of his life.
“He’s the clear winner. His stats speak for themselves. He’s had an amazing year,” Rice added. “When you play with him, you see how good he is. When you play against him, you know he’s a real challenge. He’s an amazing player, and I’m lucky to play with him, but not so lucky to play against him.”