Carabao Cup quarter-final draw simulator: Liverpool faces a tough path to the final
The draw for the rest of the 2026/27 Carabao Cup rounds has been simulated, and sadly for Liverpool fans, it doesn’t look great.
On Wednesday night, the quarter-final matchups will be announced, right after Liverpool’s exciting game against Chelsea at Anfield. By then, seven of the eight quarter-final teams will be known, with Newcastle United set to play Everton on Thursday.
Before the official draw, SPORTbible’s supercomputer tried to predict how the rest of the Carabao Cup might pan out—and it gave Liverpool a tough road to the final.
So far, two teams have already secured their quarter-final spots: Bradford City, who won 2-0 against Peterborough United, and Fleetwood Town, who caused a big surprise by beating Premier League champions Arsenal in a penalty shootout.
Arsenal’s exit came down to a missed penalty from new signing Bruno Guimaraes, leaving Fleetwood, who sit 18th in League Two, eagerly waiting for their next challenge.
In the simulated draw, Fleetwood face another Premier League team, away to either Aston Villa or Bournemouth, depending on Wednesday’s result. Bradford City also got an away tie against a top-flight side, playing the winner of Fulham vs Crystal Palace.
Manchester City, the current Carabao Cup holders, could meet Sunderland or Brentford if they get past Brighton on Wednesday.
The simulator saved a tough one for last: the winner of Liverpool vs Chelsea will face either Everton or Newcastle United away in the quarters.
Even beating Chelsea looks tricky, and then facing a Merseyside derby makes things even harder for Liverpool. And if Everton lose, playing at Newcastle’s St James’ Park could be a hostile trip considering recent dealings between the clubs.
Quarter-finals will happen the week starting December 14.
Looking ahead, the supercomputer also simulated the semi-finals draw in December. It predicted Aston Villa, Liverpool, Manchester City, and Fulham would make the last four.
In this prediction, Aston Villa would play Liverpool first at home, while Manchester City would host Fulham before traveling to Craven Cottage.
That could set up a final between old rivals Liverpool and Manchester City—their first Carabao Cup final meeting in 11 years!
But with a tough path including Chelsea, Everton or Newcastle, Bournemouth, Aston Villa, or Fleetwood Town, and then maybe Manchester City in the final, Liverpool will have their work cut out to help Andoni Iraola win his first trophy.
Want more? Check out the latest on the midfielders Andoni Iraola could sign, including a £75m star, after Liverpool told Alexis Mac Allister he can leave.