Here’s an easy breakdown of the Ballon d’Or tie-break rule, with Kylian Mbappe closing in on Harry Kane and Lamine Yamal in the top two.
We’re just hours away from finding out who will win the 2026 Ballon d’Or! The top contenders—Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, and Lamine Yamal—are all competing for football’s biggest individual award.
This year, for the first time, the Ballon d’Or ceremony won’t be in Paris—it’s happening Monday night at the London Palladium, making it one of the most exciting nights in football.
According to the Ballon d’Or website, a panel of 100 expert journalists—one from each of the top 100 FIFA-ranked countries—voted for their top 10 players from a list of 30.
Players were judged on their performance from August 3, 2025, to July 19, 2026. The criteria include individual skills, important moments, teamwork, titles won, and good sportsmanship.
The top 10 players get points: 15 for first place, 12 for second, 10 for third, and so on down to 1 point. The winner is the player with the most points overall. If there’s a tie, the number of first-place votes breaks it, then second-place votes, and so on.
Right now, Harry Kane is the favorite, but Kylian Mbappe’s chances have improved a lot recently—his odds went from 14/1 to 2/1 after news that Real Madrid will stop boycotting the awards. Reports say Mbappe has received almost as many bets as Kane in the last week.
Meanwhile, Lamine Yamal’s odds have gotten longer in the last two days, with some bookmakers, like Paddy Power, changing his odds from 9/4 to 5/1.
Part of why Kane’s odds might have improved is because he just won the ‘100 MARCA’ award days before the Ballon d’Or. This prize is also chosen by a group of international journalists, and Kane won by a small margin—3,962 points to Yamal’s 3,937.
So, Kane is still the favorite to lift the 2026 Ballon d’Or at 4/7 odds. Yamal had been second favorite, but Mbappe’s odds shortened from 12/1 to 11/4 after he scored twice against Barcelona.
Last season, Mbappe scored 58 goals in all competitions, including 10 at the World Cup. Kane finished even stronger with 73 goals for club and country. It’s shaping up to be a very close race!