Scotland might need six more World Cup results to make it to the knockout stage.
Scotland is very close to being knocked out of the 2026 World Cup after the latest group stage results—but it’s not over yet.
Thursday’s games were tough for Scotland fans. Sweden, Ecuador, and Paraguay all made it through to the round of 32 as the best third-placed teams. Sweden drew 1-1 with Japan, Ecuador beat Germany 2-1, and Paraguay held Australia to a 0-0 draw. These results put all three teams on four points, moving them ahead of Scotland in the rankings.
Right now, Scotland sits in the last qualifying spot among the third-placed teams, but the teams below still have their final matches to play. Scotland’s coach, Steve Clarke, faced a lot of criticism after he said, “I think we’re going home,” following their 3-0 loss to Brazil that put them in third place in Group C with just three points. Unfortunately, his worries might soon come true.
Here’s what Scotland needs to do to have a chance at moving on to the round of 32:
There are six key games left in six different groups that could affect Scotland’s chances.
– In Group G, Belgium is in third place with two points. The match between Egypt and Iran is crucial—if Egypt wins, Iran will finish with two points. Then, Scotland would need a win from either Belgium or New Zealand in their game.
– In Group H, Spain must beat Uruguay for Uruguay to end up with just two points. Any other result would leave the third-placed team with more points or a better goal difference than Scotland.
– In Group I, France and Norway are already through with six points each. Scotland needs a draw between Senegal and Iraq so both get just one point. Alternatively, if Iraq wins by no more than two goals, that would also help Scotland.
– In Group J, Argentina is already guaranteed first place and Jordan is out. Austria and Algeria will fight for second place, but both have a better goal difference than Scotland. If Austria beats Algeria by two goals, Algeria can’t pass Scotland. If Algeria beats Austria by four goals, that also helps Scotland.
– In Group K, DR Congo must not win against Uzbekistan for Scotland to stay ahead. Uzbekistan can win but not by more than three goals.
– Finally, in Group L, Scotland needs Ghana to beat Croatia by three goals in their last game.
All these different possibilities show just how tough it will be for Scotland to move on. Their goal difference is minus three, and they only scored one goal in their group, which puts them at a big disadvantage. Still, there’s a small chance—Opta says it’s about 5.26% before Friday’s matches—that Scotland could still make it through.