A mathematician who guessed the last three World Cup winners shares his pick for 2026
A mathematician who correctly picked the last three World Cup winners has made a surprising choice for the 2026 tournament.
The first ever 48-team World Cup starts on June 11, with Mexico and South Africa opening the event in North America. Excitement is building, and many people are busy with sweepstakes and prediction games.
While everyone has their favorite to win the trophy on July 19 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, German mathematician Joachim Klement is hoping to continue his streak of accurate predictions.
In the past, animals like octopuses, elephants, otters, and pigs have tried to predict World Cup results, but Klement has been spot on for the last three tournaments.
He picked Germany to win in 2014, France in 2018, and in 2022, he correctly predicted Lionel Messi would lead Argentina to victory in Qatar.
“The first time I was shocked when Germany became world champions in Brazil,” he told Der Spiegel, as reported by ESPN, “because experts thought no European team had ever won in South America.”
This time, Klement is backing the Netherlands to finally win the big prize.
The Dutch have been runners-up three times, most recently in 2010 when they lost to Spain.
He believes Ronald Koeman’s team will get revenge by beating Spain in the semi-finals and then defeating Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal in the final.
Klement also thinks England, led by Thomas Tuchel, will reach the semi-finals but lose there.
His prediction model takes into account each country’s GDP per person (linked to sports facilities), population size, and how popular football is in each nation.
He also considers the current world rankings, but admits a part of it comes down to luck.
“It’s completely irrational,” he said.
“It’s like playing the lottery. I always say that if anyone bets based on my prediction of the next champion, they’re a lost cause.
It’s like flipping a coin. You might guess it will land on heads four times in a row, and maybe it will. But it doesn’t guarantee it will happen again.”
The Dutch team, drawn in Group F with Japan, Sweden, and Tunisia, will play games in Arlington, Houston, and Kansas City, Texas.
They have a strong squad, with stars like Liverpool’s captain Virgil van Dijk and Barcelona’s midfielder Frenkie de Jong key to their hopes in the tournament.