The new World Cup format brings exciting results, says analyst after running 100,000 simulations.
An analyst has run a simulation of the 2026 FIFA World Cup and shared how many points each team will likely need to reach the knockout stages.
The 23rd FIFA World Cup is coming up quickly, with the first match between co-hosts Mexico and South Africa just a week away.
There are some big changes this time, like increasing the number of teams from 32 to 48. This gives smaller countries a chance to join the tournament, with Curaçao, Cape Verde, Jordan, and Uzbekistan all making their first appearances.
Of course, big-name teams like Spain, England, Germany, France, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay will also be there, along with the Netherlands and Portugal.
Because of the larger tournament, there’s now an extra knockout round. Out of the 48 teams, 32 will move on to the new round of 32. The winners then go to the round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals, and the final, which will be held in New Jersey on July 19.
FIFA President Gianni Infantino said the expansion was needed to grow football globally. He explained, “We had to open it to the world… to include more African and Asian countries because we want football to be strong everywhere.”
Analyst Mark O’Haire tested the new format by simulating the tournament 100,000 times and found some interesting facts.
He says teams with six points from their three group matches have a 100% chance of making it to the round of 32. Teams with four points are almost guaranteed too, with a 99.8% chance.
Teams with three points still have a good shot, with a 67% chance, but teams with two points only have a 5% chance to move on.
“The new format is pretty forgiving,” O’Haire shared on social media. “Even three points and a -2 goal difference gets you through more often than not.”
When someone asked which teams showed up in the final the most in his simulation, he said, “Argentina vs Spain was the most common final, with Spain winning most often. England reached the semi-finals a lot.”