This season, Arsenal have gained more from VAR decisions than 17 other Premier League teams.
A new study has found that this season, only two clubs have gained more from VAR decisions than Arsenal, especially after their 1-0 win over West Ham. The Gunners thought they’d conceded a last-minute equaliser when Callum Wilson scored in the 95th minute, but VAR ruled it out because of a foul on goalkeeper David Raya during the build-up.
Replays showed Raya’s shirt being pulled by Jean-Clair Todibo as he went for the corner, and Pablo also leaned into Raya’s neck with his arm. Some people have questioned the call, saying there were fouls by both teams that could have been punished, but the footage suggests Pablo’s foul happened first.
West Ham’s manager, Nuno Espirito Santo, criticized the officials for not understanding what counts as a foul, while Arsenal’s boss, Mikel Arteta, welcomed the decision. This call could affect the league table since a draw would have helped Manchester City win the title on goal difference if both teams won their last two games. Meanwhile, a point for West Ham would have put them level with Tottenham in 17th place, though with one more game played and a worse goal difference.
The study, done by AceOdds, shows that Arsenal have gained points thanks to VAR, and without it, the gap between them and Manchester City at the top would be much smaller. According to the study, without VAR, City would be just one point behind Arsenal but with a game in hand, putting them in a stronger position to win the title.
Brighton would be seven points better off and move from seventh to fourth, while Bournemouth would gain five points and rise to fifth. Aston Villa and Liverpool would drop a few places. In the relegation battle, West Ham would still be one point away from safety, but their closest rival would change from Tottenham to Nottingham Forest instead. Forest have gained six points from VAR this season, while Spurs have lost four points.
Sunderland, who also benefited by six points from VAR, wouldn’t be safe yet but only need one point from their remaining games. Crystal Palace would be four points clear of relegation with a game in hand.
Looking at the final table predicted for the end of May, without VAR, Manchester City would win the Premier League by two points, and West Ham would be relegated. Here’s how the standings would look:
1) Arsenal – 74 points
2) Manchester City – 73
3) Manchester United – 65
4) Brighton (+3) – 60
5) Bournemouth (+1) – 60
6) Aston Villa (-1) – 60
7) Liverpool (-3) – 59
8) Everton (+2) – 51
9) Fulham (+2) – 48
10) Chelsea (-1) – 47
11) Brentford (-3) – 47
12) Newcastle (+1) – 45
13) Leeds (+3) – 44
14) Sunderland (-2) – 42
15) Tottenham (+2) – 41
16) Crystal Palace (-1) – 40
17) Nottingham Forest (-1) – 37
18) West Ham – 36
19) Burnley – 24
20) Wolves – 20